Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.542858 1.747649 1.965218 2.213117 2.487278 2.780734 3.118123
2024-12-29 1.328771 1.619809 1.948122 2.344171 2.807127 3.329262 3.960693
2025-01-05 1.080714 1.415363 1.815390 2.324768 2.951690 3.693357 4.631994
2025-01-12 0.901369 1.266689 1.728679 2.348129 3.148284 4.137563 5.442416
2025-01-19 0.744015 1.122733 1.629382 2.344033 3.311251 4.558257 6.268051
2025-01-26 0.646329 1.044008 1.605075 2.434644 3.606333 5.175104 7.401581
2025-02-02 0.557373 0.963935 1.568601 2.504691 3.882197 5.793832 8.596150
2025-02-09 0.473690 0.878034 1.512108 2.539348 4.112599 6.372412 9.788666
2025-02-16 0.405121 0.804463 1.464109 2.580728 4.357205 6.993017 11.093547
2025-02-23 0.332376 0.710141 1.369167 2.536533 4.467223 7.426954 12.164937
2025-03-02 0.265022 0.611742 1.252036 2.440259 4.484057 7.721073 13.051527
2025-03-09 0.225055 0.557689 1.204481 2.455645 4.683280 8.313032 14.437676
2025-03-16 0.185146 0.496657 1.137834 2.435336 4.832523 8.857852 15.826165
2025-03-23 0.162798 0.468962 1.131731 2.526792 5.187740 9.772164 17.882193
2025-03-30 0.130695 0.409964 1.051548 2.465183 5.261938 10.222727 19.215194
2025-04-06 0.108272 0.368609 1.001337 2.456128 5.432701 10.854252 20.900674
2025-04-13 0.088382 0.327782 0.944333 2.424466 5.556489 11.412965 22.502732
2025-04-20 0.077327 0.308827 0.935229 2.494571 5.887703 12.371075 24.867049
2025-04-27 0.066943 0.288548 0.919031 2.546656 6.187902 13.294911 27.231861
2025-05-04 0.056757 0.265247 0.890338 2.565683 6.421129 14.109867 29.452082
2025-05-11 0.048469 0.245426 0.866954 2.594005 6.676998 14.986920 31.841984
2025-05-18 0.039050 0.217149 0.813223 2.538744 6.743228 15.496241 33.573694
2025-05-25 0.030193 0.186507 0.744672 2.433749 6.684755 15.749748 34.831613